An exciting week in Singapore with a series of events including IRAHSS 2013 all held in the Raffles City Convention Centre. That also means an upgraded corner room in the Fairmont Hotel which also has my second favourite swimming pool of any hotel in the world. Tuesday and Wednesday I have the job of summarising each day which means I need to stay alert and focused. Thursday and Friday is a mixture of a foresight event and a complexity conference and I then return home on Saturday. Today was an expert review of RAHS 4.0, the next generation of Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning system for Singapore and as one of the main designers of 1.0 (which itself spawned SenseMaker®) I had the job of reflecting on history at the start of the event, then being part of a three man review panel with Peter Ho and Jeffrey Cooper at the end. The opening reflections were made with Jeff Jonas who like me was acquired by IBM but unlike me is still there! As it happened we were both dressed in black, something captured by the graphic recording.
Now Jeff and I provide different perspectives on the whole issue of how you find patterns, my emphasis on human metadata compliments his ability to mash the numbers. A fascinating conversation with him over lunch on the predictive work he is doing on asteroid collisions really brought the home to me not only what is possible here, but also the interesting way he things about the problem. Either way we are going to spend some time together in August exploring things further and I am looking forward to that.
For the moment I had the task of providing a quick overview of what I thought was important in the next generation of RAHS, some of which was in the original vision. The three I came up stand as three general principles of any decision support system and I share them here:
Later in the day, as part of table 1 which joyously contained all the complexity experts and leading curmudgeons and cynics (not sure what the collective noun is here) we added some more:
In effect you are designing an ecology, with genetic regulation (long term in the DNA, short term in the chemical activation deactivation) rather then drawing up blue prints for a bridge.