Dave Snowden

Retrospective Coherence

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I created a little off line bubble of discontent with my posting about the Australian elections yesterday. Not from supporters of Howard (they seem to have disappeared) but from people who felt that the cause of story-telling would be best served by claiming the credit for Rudd’s election. Now no one has complained directly via a comment or elsewhere so it would be unfair to name names. However I have no intention of withdrawing my comments and I would also throw down another challenge. It is very interesting how many people are telling me and others how story telling won the election, after the election was won. It is like economists after an stock market crash who can tell you how it happened, but somehow or other make their claims after the fact not before.

Elections are a complex system guys, there are multiple unpredictable relationships between cause and effect. You have a claim for a cause, if you predicted it BEFORE the election , not afterwards.