Cognitive Edge Methods

The Future, Backwards method was developed as an alternative to scenario planning and is designed to increase the number of perspectives that a group can take both on an understanding of their past, and of the range of possible futures. It can be used to discover what entrained patterns of past perception in an organisation are determining its future. It can be used to compare and contrast different aspirations as to the present and the future. It can be used to generate multiple turning points or decision points for use in the social construction of the Cynefin Framework.

Future, Backwards can be used as a devise to generate or prompt for anecdotes, to lead into mapping and many other purposes. It is one of the primary workshop tools within Cognitive Edge and one of the most popular. If the instructions are followed it is easy for participants to understand and generates considerable energy within the group. It can be delivered at varying depths of detail and duration, taking from an hour to half a day to complete (obviously with different levels of processing and detail).

A key early decision is if you are using the method on multiple groups (to compare different outputs) or with one group. It is preferable to do a comparison between groups. Multiple groups do not have to carry out the process on the same day, however they must not see each others' results. Wall space or tables depending on the size of hexies in use should be checked in advance.

Hexies should be used as follows:

If you have seven colours

Current State (CS)
Turning points backwards from CS
Heaven
Hell
Turning points backwards from heaven
Turning points backwards from hell
Accidents on hell or heaven pathway

More restricted case

Current state
Turning points backwards from CS, heaven and hell
Heaven & Hell (marked)
Accidents

In designing the session a practitioner must first decide:

How to divide participants into groups – it is usually most effective to have several teams create, compare and contrast a future backwards product
On what basis will the groups compare/contrast their products – real-time in the same workshop, in multiple workshops over time and space.
Teams must not be shown prior products before they have an opportunity to create their own as this patterns their thinking.
Butcher paper is placed along a long wall (3 strips) to provide plenty of space for at least 10 people to comfortably post & discuss hexagons
A key is placed on the wall that illustrates what each hexagon represents
Pens and hexies are provided

Warn that the process requires them to go through a series of stages without knowledge of the outcome until the process is finished. Ensure the participants understand why they are conducting the exercise (even though you’re not specific about the outcome they will create) – e.g. to contrast perspectives on the past, or to identify decision points etc.

Task	Comments
Provide basic instructions – reveal the instructions little by little as you conduct the exercise. Explain ground rules: there is no right or wrong answer be as creative, imaginary and extreme as you can in imagining potential futures (don’t let the conditions of the present constrain your perspective of the future) Consider all dimensions (behaviours, processes, characteristics, events, newspaper headlines, pictures, video – anything that helps describe the future state Don’t channel all discussions/postings through one person – everyone contributes Discuss items and perspectives and experiences whilst posting – no silence! Please do not look at what the other groups are doing. DO NOT set any restriction on the time period, contrasts will be interesting	One idea or turning point per hexi.
Describe Current State Each group is then asked to identify descriptions that for them summarise the current state of affairs (CS). Each of these descriptions should be written on a single hexi and the results clustered two thirds to the right and in the centre vertically. It is important to check correct placement of the CS hexies in the work area otherwise everything gets difficult!	It's a common confusion for the group to think that each member should produce their own CS statements when the group as a whole should discuss and agree the CS. Ensure colour coding on the slide matches hexies that you hand out. Watch for people disengaging or dominating the process. Make sure that the whole group is active in discussing each decision.
Identify Key Events (working backwards) Each group is now asked to identify the most significant event in the immediate past which shaped the CS and to describe it on a single hexi to be placed to the left of the CS cluster. Some of these events may be more significant than others.	Time stamps may be included Key events can be varied – e.g. anything from a new appointment, to a take-over, to an impactful policy or statement.
Once this is complete AND NOT BEFORE each group is asked to repeat the process for the most significant event that preceded the one that they have just identified and continue crating events ONE AT A TIME going as far back into the past as they consider appropriate. Make it very clear that this is a single track backwards from the CS cluster, not from each CS item.	The tendency to produce a track from each of the CS events is common and needs to be watched. It is OK to allow them to bifurcate pathways to the past, but ask them to try to avoid it and keep to one or two at most.
Describe Extreme Heaven Each group is then asked to imagine an IMPOSSIBLY good future (Heaven) and describe the conditions/experience of Heaven with hexies discussed and agreed by the group. The results are then placed in the upper right hand corner of the work area. Ritual dissent (if there are multiple groups) can be used to challenge heavens and hells, but if this is the case the historical strand should be covered so other groups do not see the material before they have finished.	This process can be started with each group as they become free to commence it. Groups will work at different pace and it is important to put pressure on to keep the pace up. If necessary prepare another task for groups that finish early. Normally you should contrast the phrase impossibly good with a phrase often used in scenario planning=, namely best possible.
Describe Extreme Hell They then repeat the process for an IMPOSSIBLY bad future state with the results placed in the bottom right hand area of the work area.	Note that the phrase heaven and hell may be culturally sensitive and alternative words may be need to be used.
Connect Heaven to a past event with fictional events Each group is then asked to make heaven happen. They are asked to do this the same way that they worked this history of the CS. Starting with the immediate preceding significant event to heaven and then working backwards, event by event to one of the significant events that track back from the CS.	The group are allowed to have one accident or completely unexpected event in the backwards path. They must not trace the heaven back to the current state, it must be linked to an event in the past. At this point the main error is to work forwards from a turning point to heaven or hell.It is critical to monitor the groups at this stage. The temptation to suggest a type of accident here has seduced many a consultant. If you have to suggest something then create an example if a different field and ban its use.
Connect Hell to a past event with fictional events The process is repeated for hell. The path may lead to a different event than the heaven path. The group may be asked to produce 2 indicators that illustrate they are on a path to heaven and 2 indicators that illustrate their on a path to hell.	This can be run in parallel with the above step if time is running short.
Review the finished product – compare and contrast Once all groups are finished then they are asked to appoint a spokesperson who stays with the work area, while the other members rotate around the other groups to see what they have done. The instructions are to note common events and surprising departures. The commonalities and differences between the groups are ideally analysed by the groups themselves - ideally by remixing the groups to have representatives of each of the starting group. This can be done with three questions: What are the commonalities and differences between your FB and those of the other teams? What surprised your about the other results What consequences do you see from the differences? Both for what has happened in the past and what could happen in the future.	This may be carried out analytically after the event itself. You may want to explain the theory of the different types of pattern entrainment before this part of the exercise. Point out the following: Things in common in the past determine the way we see the future. If there are lots of CS differences the group is not aligned Patterns on the pathways to heaven and hell are things that could be triggered by a proposal and would determine crisis response. Heaven and hell options can reveal deep-seated motivational factors.
Capture Results The results should now be recorded and ideally retained. If the events are required for another process such as the social construction of the Cynefin framework then they should be replicated.	If there is no alternative to using the original material then make sure it is recorded.

Task

Comments

Provide basic instructions – reveal the instructions little by little as you conduct the exercise.

Explain ground rules:

there is no right or wrong answer
be as creative, imaginary and extreme as you can in imagining potential futures (don’t let the conditions of the present constrain your perspective of the future)
Consider all dimensions (behaviours, processes, characteristics, events, newspaper headlines, pictures, video – anything that helps describe the future state
Don’t channel all discussions/postings through one person – everyone contributes
Discuss items and perspectives and experiences whilst posting – no silence!
Please do not look at what the other groups are doing.
DO NOT set any restriction on the time period, contrasts will be interesting

One idea or turning point per hexi.

Describe Current State

Each group is then asked to identify descriptions that for them summarise the current state of affairs (CS). Each of these descriptions should be written on a single hexi and the results clustered two thirds to the right and in the centre vertically. It is important to check correct placement of the CS hexies in the work area otherwise everything gets difficult!

It's a common confusion for the group to think that each member should produce their own CS statements when the group as a whole should discuss and agree the CS. Ensure colour coding on the slide matches hexies that you hand out. Watch for people disengaging or dominating the process. Make sure that the whole group is active in discussing each decision.

Identify Key Events (working backwards)

Each group is now asked to identify the most significant event in the immediate past which shaped the CS and to describe it on a single hexi to be placed to the left of the CS cluster. Some of these events may be more significant than others.

Time stamps may be included

Key events can be varied – e.g. anything from a new appointment, to a take-over, to an impactful policy or statement.

Once this is complete AND NOT BEFORE each group is asked to repeat the process for the most significant event that preceded the one that they have just identified and continue crating events ONE AT A TIME going as far back into the past as they consider appropriate.

Make it very clear that this is a single track backwards from the CS cluster, not from each CS item.

The tendency to produce a track from each of the CS events is common and needs to be watched.

It is OK to allow them to bifurcate pathways to the past, but ask them to try to avoid it and keep to one or two at most.

Describe Extreme Heaven

Each group is then asked to imagine an IMPOSSIBLY good future (Heaven) and describe the conditions/experience of Heaven with hexies discussed and agreed by the group. The results are then placed in the upper right hand corner of the work area. Ritual dissent (if there are multiple groups) can be used to challenge heavens and hells, but if this is the case the historical strand should be covered so other groups do not see the material before they have finished.

This process can be started with each group as they become free to commence it. Groups will work at different pace and it is important to put pressure on to keep the pace up. If necessary prepare another task for groups that finish early.

Normally you should contrast the phrase impossibly good with a phrase often used in scenario planning=, namely best possible.

Describe Extreme Hell

They then repeat the process for an IMPOSSIBLY bad future state with the results placed in the bottom right hand area of the work area.

Note that the phrase heaven and hell may be culturally sensitive and alternative words may be need to be used.

Connect Heaven to a past event with fictional events

Each group is then asked to make heaven happen. They are asked to do this the same way that they worked this history of the CS. Starting with the immediate preceding significant event to heaven and then working backwards, event by event to one of the significant events that track back from the CS.

The group are allowed to have one accident or completely unexpected event in the backwards path.

They must not trace the heaven back to the current state, it must be linked to an event in the past. At this point the main error is to work forwards from a turning point to heaven or hell.It is critical to monitor the groups at this stage.

The temptation to suggest a type of accident here has seduced many a consultant. If you have to suggest something then create an example if a different field and ban its use.

Connect Hell to a past event with fictional events

The process is repeated for hell. The path may lead to a different event than the heaven path. The group may be asked to produce 2 indicators that illustrate they are on a path to heaven and 2 indicators that illustrate their on a path to hell.

This can be run in parallel with the above step if time is running short.

Review the finished product – compare and contrast

Once all groups are finished then they are asked to appoint a spokesperson who stays with the work area, while the other members rotate around the other groups to see what they have done. The instructions are to note common events and surprising departures. The commonalities and differences between the groups are ideally analysed by the groups themselves - ideally by remixing the groups to have representatives of each of the starting group. This can be done with three questions:

What are the commonalities and differences between your FB and those of the other teams?
What surprised your about the other results
What consequences do you see from the differences? Both for what has happened in the past and what could happen in the future.

This may be carried out analytically after the event itself. You may want to explain the theory of the different types of pattern entrainment before this part of the exercise. Point out the following:

Things in common in the past determine the way we see the future.
If there are lots of CS differences the group is not aligned
Patterns on the pathways to heaven and hell are things that could be triggered by a proposal and would determine crisis response.

Heaven and hell options can reveal deep-seated motivational factors.

Capture Results

The results should now be recorded and ideally retained. If the events are required for another process such as the social construction of the Cynefin framework then they should be replicated.

If there is no alternative to using the original material then make sure it is recorded.

Analysis

Each group's results should be compared with care as follows:

Common events in the past across all groups should be identified. These may not be an exact match and not all groups will have all events in common.
Differences are also significant. The common past events represent the pattern entrained filters through which a group or groups filter their perception of the present.
You may find (and it is frequent) that one groups hell can be another groups heaven
The accidents can have varying degrees of significance as they represent unrealisable fears or hopes.
The heaven and hell tracks, particularly the early stages, represent events that will trigger a pattern entrained response to heaven or hell respectively

The Future, Backwards

Analysis

CITATIONS

COMMENTS