We may agree that when it comes to Complex Systems, hindsight does not lead to foresight, but we can still learn from the past. Most of my time is spent in complex business systems but I've found military history to be a rich treasure trove of experience. We need look no further than Clausewitz's comments about "the fog of war" and "friction" that makes simple things difficult to recognize the inherent complexity of combat.
This post is going to be essentially a bibliography, probably so much that some of you will wonder if I've got stock in Amazon (I don't). But I am going to discuss some books that I've found to be good references applicable to both military and business environments (although sometimes with a bit of a stretch.)
I first learned about USAF Col John Boyd several years ago in a workshop on project management. Boyd was possibly the world's greatest fighter pilot and in his later years worked to synthesize theories of strategy. Many people have heard of Boyd's OODA Loop. Boyd did not write any books, but there are several good ones about him, including:
Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War by Roger Coram. Very readable biography of Boyd and his impact on the acceptance of principles of Maneuver Warfare, an approach designed to be successful in inherently complex environments.
The Mind of War: John Boyd and American Security by Grant Hammond. Another Boyd biography, with more emphasis on his theories.
Certain to Win: The Strategies of John Boyd applied to Business by Chet Richards. Richards worked extensively with Boyd and this book presents both theory and actionable steps to translating military-centric Maneuver Warfare Theory into a business-centric Maneuver Conflict Theory. Highly recommended for practical approaches to developing agile, flexible organizations.
Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd by Frans Osinga. If you are looking for a scholarly and complete assessment of Boyd's thought and its origins then this is the book for you. Not recommended as the first text on Boyd. This book is essentially Osinga's PhD dissertation.
Maneuver Warfare Theory and, by extension, Maneuver Conflict Theory are fundamental approaches to successfully managing (and surviving) in rapidly changing, non-linear, complex environments. William Lind, strategic thinker and author, created a list of 7 books he called The Canon. Lind said that if you read those books in order you would understand the development of Maneuver Warfare Theory from its origins in 18th Century Prussia to today. Some of these books are readily available, one is out of print and often outrageously expensive to buy (although I've found it in libraries).
I'm going to link to Lind's blog posts from 2004 for descriptions of the books and why he suggested them. Partly I'm bringing these books up because I have found them to loaded with useful examples and stories that we can learn from. I frequently use these stories in presentations as a different approach than a more typical business case study or benchmarking example. The message may be the same, but the uniqueness of the stories helps make them more memorable.
First, Lind wrote a description of the four stages of warfare and how they have changed over the last 400 years. This sets the stage for his recommended list of books.
The Canon and the Four Generations from June 10, 2004
The Canon from June 15, 2004. Lind describes the first 4 books in his list of seven. Note that The Seeds of Disaster: Development of French Army Doctrine 1919-1939 by Robert Doughty is the one that is out of print. Lind's comments to the contrary, I found it to be a fascinating study of the development of the Maginot Line strategy and how it developed for very good, very legitimate reasons.
The Canon, continued from June 25, 2004. Lind wraps up the final 3 books in The Canon. Lind has a bit of trouble stopping at 7, so he adds in an eighth book, The Rules of the Game: Jutland and the British Naval Command by Andrew Gordon about the British Navy.
Since this list is getting way too long (and way too expensive) I'll end with a couple of books that are available free on line. They are part of a truly fascinating series of top level doctrinal documents published by the United States Marine Corps and they are worth reading, in part, because they are probably very different than you are expecting them to be. These books are well written, easy to read, and describe the essence of managing successfully in complex environments.
MCDP-5 Planning I consider this to be the best book I've ever read on planning, especially in complex environments. It cautions against trying to plan the unplannable and this book, more than any other had the most direct link to my coming across the Cynefin Model.
MCDP-6 Command and Control If you are unfamiliar with the modern military this small book will probably be a shock, especially given your likely perception of the content based on the title. To give you a sense of the book, realize that this is the top level Marine document of doctrine on command and control and it opens up with a 32 page story in which there are examples of more and less successful command and control approaches. This is the use of narrative for teaching and it succeeds.
Well, that was a long list. If you're still with me, in future posts I intend to bring up some of the examples I've picked up from these books and show their relevance to today's world, whether we're talking military or business.