a) Sometimes, but not always. Depends on the something
- [yes] the way water will go down a drain
- [no]the next direction a typhoon will move in
- [perhaps] Will the dog bite me?
b)Yes, because your implication is that you know and understand fully this "something" and therefore know every implication from possessing these two things - i.e it is knowable/understandable - but isn't this contradicting the Cynefin model on complex, chaotic and unknown states?
c) No, because the implications can be infinite
Were you looking for something more intelligent ?
The reason I answered was to help me think about a problem I have at the moment - perhaps you can help? It is this:
I know some evidence (evidence-base policy making - for want of a better label) about education and training systems in a particualr country.
I understand from this evidence that if I do something in the policy I will increase the likelihood of improving a situation in line with my objectives (higher student application, lower dropout, improved learning outsome etc.)
BUT I don' know all the implications for this country - there may be hidden side-effects to my policy due to enthographic differences, socio-economic factors I haven't enquired into, the fact that complexity results in the implied result being unpredicatable - am I gambling?
Even if it was the same country I coundl't be sure the same outcome would occur twice, or can I?
Thanks for making me think - they say that the question you ask are more important than the answers you receive - I'd be happy with a draw.
Ian
Comments (2)
Three answers come to mind, Dave
a) Sometimes, but not always. Depends on the something
- [yes] the way water will go down a drain
- [no]the next direction a typhoon will move in
- [perhaps] Will the dog bite me?
b)Yes, because your implication is that you know and understand fully this "something" and therefore know every implication from possessing these two things - i.e it is knowable/understandable - but isn't this contradicting the Cynefin model on complex, chaotic and unknown states?
c) No, because the implications can be infinite
Were you looking for something more intelligent ?
The reason I answered was to help me think about a problem I have at the moment - perhaps you can help? It is this:
I know some evidence (evidence-base policy making - for want of a better label) about education and training systems in a particualr country.
I understand from this evidence that if I do something in the policy I will increase the likelihood of improving a situation in line with my objectives (higher student application, lower dropout, improved learning outsome etc.)
BUT I don' know all the implications for this country - there may be hidden side-effects to my policy due to enthographic differences, socio-economic factors I haven't enquired into, the fact that complexity results in the implied result being unpredicatable - am I gambling?
Even if it was the same country I coundl't be sure the same outcome would occur twice, or can I?
Thanks for making me think - they say that the question you ask are more important than the answers you receive - I'd be happy with a draw.
Ian
Posted by Ian Cumming
|
August 17, 2010 2:06 PM
Posted on August 17, 2010 14:06
The brevity of your question evokes: "Wisdom is seeing the end of a matter from within its beginning."
There is knowledge; there is understanding... and then there is wisdom.
Posted by DavidWmCowell | August 22, 2010 6:01 PM
Posted on August 22, 2010 18:01