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Complexity, precision and meaning

We had an excellent course in Amsterdam last week.  One of those where you get challenged by the audience, always more fun that where you get passive reception.  One of the attendees, Ivan Jensen, brought my attention to the following quote from Lotfi Zadeh, otherwise known as the law of incompatibility.

As complexity increases, precise statements lose their meaning, and meaningful statements lose their precision

Now I have long talked about a related concept that I call requisite ambiguity, which is a more cryptic expression of the same concept.  If we are dealing with complex systems then they are non reductionist in nature.  That is to say the whole is not the sum of the parts and they are non-aggregative in nature.  That means as they scale the nature of language and the means by which meaning can emerge change.  A complex system is a lightly constrained system, in which agents (anything which acts) co-evolve with the system itself; the system constrains the agents, but the agents constantly modify the system by the nature of their interaction with it.  Managing complex system this involves a process of navigation where the map by its nature is incomplete and the topology is constantly changing.  Hence the criticality of weak signal detection and the ability to quickly amplify or dampen the emergent potentiality of a system.  By the time we have probabilities it may be too late, and expecting precision is fatal.

Of course all markets are complex systems, as are employees at any volume.  Precision in these is a retrospective act of understanding, not a determinate or pre-condition of future decision making.  We have to act before we can fully know, hence the shift from fail-safe design to safe-fail experimentation.  The difficulty with measurement systems, and the whole MBA/consultancy approach to strategy with its emphasis on analysis at the expense of action is that it fails to recognise complexity and seeks precision at the cost of meaning.  This is not to say that analysis is wrong, but the nature and focus of analysis is different.  More on that later in the week.

Comments (9)

Jonathan Carter:

this is an intentionally dumb question, but important to me - does complexity increase?

Something is unique or not, you don't get degrees of uniqueness. As a person I may be very different to my friends who are all similar, but that doesn't mean i am more unique, i am just an outlier.

doesn't the same apply to complexity? the strength of interdependencies may increase making the system more sensitive to small changes...does that mean it is more complex?

i ask the question because i don't know!

I recently conducted a qualitative research on the discovery of crucial leadership behavior and evidence of how leadership behavior enhances organizational learning processes. In an extended literature review I focused on new leadership frameworks which have further been tested through interviews. These new leadership frameworks outline that it is not about 'leading for efficiency and control' but about 'leading for adaptability, knowledge and learning'. One of the ways this is being realized is by the "law of requisite variety". This law states that it takes complexity to defeat complexity. In order words, it "enhances a system's capacity to search for solutions to challenge and to innovate because it releases the capacity of a neural network of agents in pursuit of such optimization. That is, it optimizes a system's capacity for learning, creativity, and adaptability" (Uhl-Bien et al., 2008; p. 190).

If you want to read Uhl-Bien's article, just go to http://books.google.com/ and search for the book 'Complexity Leadership: Part 1: Conceptual Foundations'. When selected, please search inside the book with the term requisite, et voila, there is more about new (complexity) leadership frameworks.

Regards,

Richard Lalleman

---------------------------
References:
Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R and McKelvey, B (2008) Complexity leadership theory: Shifting
leadership from the industrial age to the knowledge era, in: Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R.
(eds.) Complexity leadership: Conceptual foundations Pt. 1

Dave,
you confirm my intuition that the MBA/consultancy "technology" has been over deployed, and that there is a shortage of individuals equipped with that less mechanistic ability to judge information and events. One assumes that in time, the need for those skills will be recognized and demand will rise. Creating supply is another matter.

Tim

Dave Snowden [TypeKey Profile Page]:

Complexity is complexity but the number and type and variation between agents including the nature of those agents can change. I think the quote is OK given that, although there is always the danger of seeing complexity as a spectrum rather than a state.

The Law of requisite variety (Ashby is the originator of this) is a more interesting idea and there is some controversy. Especially as Ashby wrote pre-complexity science and is therefore using the word in a non technical way. Some (myself/Boisot) think that complexity allows us to reverse Ashby's law, and reduce complexity (in Ashby's sense of the word) though complexity (adaptive systems, science thereof) but that is for another blog.

Tim - fully agree!

Thanks to all for comments - made me think

Gordon Rae:

Induction, not complexity, is the reason we need ambiguity. If we want to make meaningful inferences by collecting instances of the same type, we need a type to guide our collecting.

A type needn't have strong ontological credentials, it can just be a hypothesis or a heuristic for gathering instsnces to investigate.

Nick O'D:

The McKinsey authors of Mobilizing Minds talk about a complexity frontier, which affects large organisations, where economies of scale disappear and interaction costs increase faster than revenue. Some of their suggestions for breaking through this frontier could be interpreted as loosening management and letting internal markets work for you. They also talk of the digital revolution, as an enabler to breakthrough, but I am not sure that equate this to the potential offered by some social networking paradigms.

tony joyce:

Dave,
Are you familiar with the concept of "redundant diversity"? It is in "Complexity and Innovations in Organizations" by Jose Fonseca. The principle thrust if I am reading it as intended, is that conversations about misunderstandings amplify differences in structures and language in a process of "transformation of redundant diversity." It is a short, concise and well argued work, although a trifle expensive if you can't find it at the library.

Dave Snowden [TypeKey Profile Page]:

I read the Fonesca book. I will admit that I thought it was not the best in the series. Grffin on Leadership was better.

I like this summary as a prescription for entrepreneurship:

"Markets are complex systems, we have to act before we can fully know: shift from fail-safe design to safe-fail experimentation." Dave Snowden

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