It's my privilege to welcome Gary to our guest blog for the next two weeks. You can find out more about him on his web site. If you haven't read Sources of Power yet then you are missing out on one of the classics of decision theory. It was a major influence on my work and I have since had the pleasure not only of meeting Gary, but also of working with him on a research project in Singapore. His recent book The Power of Intuition has the readability of Blink, but with intellectual vigor added in for good measure and without trivialisation for journalistic effect.

Gary's first post is on the subject of experts, deals with some of the issues associated with non-expert judgement without the jargon and hype of prediction markets and is highly topical. I won't spoil it by attempting any more of an introduction that that. Enjoy.