I want to affirm that I think this is an observation of great importance, although you express it almost as a passing thought..

I think there is a sound foundation to the idea that complex systems require just the right level of Balkanization to be stable. Systems from very large (i.e. markets, that require multiple distinct competitors and paradigms to achieve efficiency, and to avoid unstable oligopoly) to very small (i.e. families, which always develop many overlapping subgroups in order to deal with stresses) display this property.

In the US, we see this confirmed in many ways in the political sphere. Our 2-party system has become completely dysfunctional, even aside from the incompetence of many of the leadership. (Indeed, this incompetence is a useful symptom of this dysfunction. We're starving, surrounded by a cornucpia of talent). The "States Rights" philosophical strain in American politics is a great affirmation of your Balkanization idea... the idea that to be stable, Federalism REQUIRES that each of the states retain a high degree of uniqueness and self-determination. And I, for one, believe that the best model out there is the Swiss canton model, which achieves what States Rights dreams of, on a better, smaller scale.

The States Rights theory would be OK with your 5 million number, but my instinct is that that's too high -- that 1M is closer to correct. What makes you opt for 5 million? Does that have to do with balancing efficiency with the critical mass to compete with bigger entities?

Good points Peter
I got the figure (and yes it is alliterative with 5/15/150) by looking at the populations of Scotland, Wales, The Nordics, Israel, Singapore etc. 5m seems a good fit. However it is not reserached, so for the moment it is speculation.

I think there is a sound foundation to the idea that complex systems require just the right level of Balkanization to be stable. Systems from very large (i.e. markets, that require multiple distinct competitors and paradigms to achieve efficiency, and to avoid unstable oligopoly) to very small (i.e. families, which always develop many overlapping subgroups in order to deal with stresses) display this property.

From my perspective this is much of what Canadian politics is about .. the ongoing muttering back and forth about keeping essentially ten separate but related political and cultural entities in some sort of always-being-negotiated balance .. with a new chapter upon us following the first minority government in Quebec in a very long time.

I include the "very small" from the above quote because of all the neighbourhoods in Canada defined by cultural or ethinic groups where family ties are still a major if not the primary force.

Only Ontario and Quebec are > 5m, and some part of that is the highly-populated metropolitan area in each of those provinces.

Interesting country in terms of how it works and how decisions get made. Subsidiarity is a critical element.

Dave

You can add that other Celtic country - Ireland - to the list of countries of 5M. (The Republic is 4Million approx though we include the 1.5M in Northern Ireland when we beat Wales in the occasional game of rugby).

Christopher Alexander mentioned a similar figure in his book "A Pattern Language" from page 4 ideal sizes are...

The Region: 8 Million People
Major City: 500,000 people
Communites and towns 5-10,000
Neighbourhoods 500-100
House Clusters and work communities 50-50 people
Families and work groups 1-15 people

Regards

Dermot

So how are you measuring social cohesion Dave? That strikes me as a difficult enterprise to do methodically, not that such is necessarily important, but something more than casual observation is required here.

Thanks Dermot, especially for the reference which I will pick up on. One branch of my family is Irish, located in Monaghan and the cohesion point came across particularily at a funeral five years back when the whole community turned out for the wake.

As to more serious matters, just for the record you only won this year thanks to a referee who did not award three clear penalty tries, or yellow card O'Connell for a professional foul (and who last won the Grand Slam by the way)and at least Llanelli extracted some revenge last Friday ....

Its a speculative point at this stage Toby, although Dermot's post gives some back up. I think I am seeing it as the degree to which there is a consensus on key social issues (Scandinavia in child care etc) but I am interested in other ideas

Hi Dave,

By coincidence I was having a drink with somebody from the Foreign Office last night who researches "failed states" - we were both at a talk by a Bosnian friend who works in the area of restorative justice in relation to war crimes.

Anyway, I mentioned the 5m idea and also my own hunch that Slovenija is in many ways the perfect size in a modern devolved Europe, being bigger than a city state but not big enough to have secessionist issues. He mentioned that classical thinking had previously been that 12m was about right, but I guess the number is going down as a result of more and more devolution and secessionism.

Also, we are seeing an unraveling of post-Wilsonian multi-ethnic states (ex-Yugo, possibly Iraq post-invasaion and also several African states are under a lot of pressure), which I find very sad on many levels. This will result in more states around the 2-5m mark emerging in the C21, I think.

I don't mean to rain on the Celt-love-parade above, but I have some concerns about "consensus on key social issues" in the context of small states with a single absolute majority ethnic population. Sweden is simiultaneously very welcoming and also very demanding of integration in relation to refugee communities and it is not always a rosy picture from their point of view. And, just to wind you up, let's also be honest about the levels of racism and negative nationalism in Ireland, Scotland and Wales. I don't fancy being Chinese in parts of Ireland, nor would I fancy being a "foreigner" in an independent Wales or Scotland, if truth be told. I know what your thinking: it was the bloody English who made it so ;-) but the fact is small nation states are not always a good place to be for newcomers. Slovenija is one of my favourite places in Europe, but until recently (maybe still, I don't know) it had not a single mosque despite a significant Muslim minority.

I digress... thanks for the post, which is good food for thought.

Just a plea to commenters on the use of the word Balkanisation: what does it mean exactly? And are you aware that the Balkans produced one of the last centuries great integration projects - Yugoslavia - which played a role in bringing together the G77 and the NAM, which were the best hope many countries had of avoiding domination by Washington or Moscow? The Balkans ain't all about atomisation and conflict!

mumble, mumble, etc... ;-)

This is interesting to me, as I live in New Zealand (pop c. 4m), and specifically in Wellington (pop c 450k, although in three clumps).

Taking a slightly different tack, rather than asking about measurement, how do you identify social cohesion? What are its attributes or indicators? I'm uncertain to what degree New Zealand has real social cohesion, rather than perceived social cohesion--small sub-groups of course exist, with quite different mores and operating principles than those with which I'm familiar.

I think I can defend Welsh and Irish openness Lee (even with independence). If you look at the Italian, Irish and other immigrant communities in Cardiff there is a better track record than many a city. The mass immigration from Cornwell (OK they are also celts) in the 19C was accepted and integrated. I think a cohesive culture finds it easier to accept outsiders (but this is a statement made late at night so I reserve the right to withdraw it.

The question of cohesion has come up in several comments and I admit it is an interesting question. At the moment I think I can recognise it, but I don’t think I can define it. Any more ideas or references on this would be interesting.

African states are interesting - given that colonial borders ignored previous national/tribal ones, it would be interested to see if a "Catalan" solution might be effective. However I don't think its likely.

New Zealand is an interesting case, one of the best places I know the visit and Wellington has the best cafe culture in the world. From an outside perspective it has high cohesion, even across the sub groups, although internally I can see that differences are more strongly felt.

That said, a characteristic of the welsh is to find differences. On discovering that someone is Welsh, you then move to North V South, then (if South) East v West and so on until you have created a difference ..…

I am heartened by your comments about Wales and I am sure you are right. I was being a bit harsh, perhaps, but there are sometimes real issues with the position of minorities in smaller (roughly